Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

Estimating the mean critical gap

The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.

Microscopic modelling of freeway operations

Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.

Outcomes following inpatient rehabilitation of lower limb amputees

Introduction: Lower-limb amputations are a serious adverse consequence of lifestyle related chronic conditions and a serious concern among the aging population in Australia. Lower limb amputations have severe personal, social and economic impacts on the individual, healthcare system and broader community. This study aimed to address a critical gap in the research literature by investigating the physical functioning and social characteristics of lower limb amputees at discharge from tertiary hospital inpatient rehabilitation. Method: A cohort study was implemented among patients with lower limb amputations admitted to a Geriatric Assessment and Rehabilitation Unit for rehabilitation at a tertiary hospital. Conventional descriptive statistics were used to examine patient demographic, physical functioning and social living outcomes recorded for patients admitted between 2005 and 2011. Results: A total of 423 admissions occurred during the study period, 313 (74%) were male. This sample included admissions for left (n = 189, 45%), right (n = 220, 52%) and bilateral (n = 14, 3%) lower limb amputations, with 15 (3%) patients dying whilst an inpatient. The mean (standard deviation) age was 65 (13.9) years. Amputations attributed to vascular causes accounted for 333 (78%) admissions; 65 (15%) of these had previously had an amputation. The mean (SD) length of stay in the rehabilitation unit was 56 (42) days. Prior to this admission, 123 (29%) patients were living alone, 289 (68%) were living with another and 3 (0.7%) were living in residential care. Following this amputation related admission, 89 (21%) patients did not return to their prior living situation. Of those admitted, 187 (44%) patients were discharged with a lower limb prosthesis. Conclusion: The clinical group is predominately older adults. The ratio of males to females was approximately 3:1. Over half did not return to walking and many were not able to return to their prior accommodation. However, few patients died during their admission.

Timed Probabilistic Automaton : a bridge between Raven and Song Scope for automatic species recognition

Raven and Song Scope are two automated sound anal-ysis tools based on machine learning technique for en-vironmental monitoring. Many research works have been conducted upon them, however, no or rare explo-ration mentions about the performance and comparison between them. This paper investigates the comparisons from six aspects: theory, software interface, ease of use, detection targets, detection accuracy, and potential application. Through deep exploration one critical gap is identified that there is a lack of approach to detect both syllables and call structures, since Raven only aims to detect syllables while Song Scope targets call structures. Therefore, a Timed Probabilistic Automata (TPA) system is proposed which separates syllables first and clusters them into complex structures after.

Development of reverse phase protein microarrays for clinical applications and patient-tailored therapy

While genomics provide important information about the somatic genetic changes, and RNA transcript profiling can reveal important expression changes that correlate with outcome and response to therapy, it is the proteins that do the work in the cell. At a functional level, derangements within the proteome, driven by post-translational and epigenetic modifications, such as phosphorylation, is the cause of a vast majority of human diseases. Cancer, for instance, is a manifestation of deranged cellular protein molecular networks and cell signaling pathways that are based on genetic changes at the DNA level. Importantly, the protein pathways contain the drug targets in signaling networks that govern overall cellular survival, proliferation, invasion and cell death. Consequently, the promise of proteomics resides in the ability to extend analysis beyond correlation to causality. A critical gap in the information knowledge base of molecular profiling is an understanding of the ongoing activity of protein signaling in human tissue: what is activated and “in use” within the human body at any given point in time. To address this gap, we have invented a new technology, called reverse phase protein microarrays, that can generate a functional read-out of cell signaling networks or pathways for an individual patient obtained directly from a biopsy specimen. This “wiring diagram” can serve as the basis for both, selection of a therapy and patient stratification.

Instability Analysis Of Torsional Mems/Nems Actuators Under Capillary Force

The static and dynamic instabilities of a torsional MEMS/NEMS actuator caused by capillary effects are studied, respectively. An instability number, eta, is defined, and the critical gap distance, g(cr), between the mainplate and the substrate is derived. According to the values of eta and g, the instability criteria of the actuator are presented. The dimensionless motion equation of the MEMS/NEMS torsional actuator is derived when it makes nonlinear oscillation under capillary force. The qualitative analysis of the nonlinear equation is made, and the phase portraits are presented on the phase plane. In addition, the bifurcation phenomena in the system are also analyzed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Trabecular Bone Explant Model of Osteocyte–Osteoblast Co-Culture for Bone Mechanobiology

The osteocyte network is recognized as the major mechanical sensor in the bone remodeling process, and osteocyte-osteoblast communication acts as an important mediator in the coordination of bone formation and turnover. In this study, we developed a novel 3D trabecular bone explant co-culture model that allows live osteocytes situated in their native extracellular matrix environment to be interconnected with seeded osteoblasts on the bone surface. Using a low-level medium perfusion system, the viability of in situ osteocytes in bone explants was maintained for up to 4 weeks, and functional gap junction intercellular communication (GJIC) was successfully established between osteocytes and seeded primary osteoblasts. Using this novel co-culture model, the effects of dynamic deformational loading, GJIC, and prostaglandin E-2 (PGE(2)) release on functional bone adaptation were further investigated. The results showed that dynamical deformational loading can significantly increase the PGE(2) release by bone cells, bone formation, and the apparent elastic modulus of bone explants. However, the inhibition of gap junctions or the PGE(2) pathway dramatically attenuated the effects of mechanical loading. This 3D trabecular bone explant co-culture model has great potential to fill in the critical gap in knowledge regarding the role of osteocytes as a mechano-sensor and how osteocytes transmit signals to regulate osteoblasts function and skeletal integrity as reflected in its mechanical properties.

Some constructions, related to noncommutative tori; Fredholm modules and the Beilinson-Bloch regulator

A noncommutative 2-torus is one of the main toy models of noncommutative geometry, and a noncommutative n-torus is a straightforward generalization of it. In 1980, Pimsner and Voiculescu in [17] described a 6-term exact sequence, which allows for the computation of the K-theory of noncommutative tori. It follows that both even and odd K-groups of n-dimensional noncommutative tori are free abelian groups on 2^n-1 generators. In 1981, the Powers-Rieffel projector was described [19], which, together with the class of identity, generates the even K-theory of noncommutative 2-tori. In 1984, Elliott [10] computed trace and Chern character on these K-groups. According to Rieffel [20], the odd K-theory of a noncommutative n-torus coincides with the group of connected components of the elements of the algebra. In particular, generators of K-theory can be chosen to be invertible elements of the algebra. In Chapter 1, we derive an explicit formula for the First nontrivial generator of the odd K-theory of noncommutative tori. This gives the full set of generators for the odd K-theory of noncommutative 3-tori and 4-tori.

In Chapter 2, we apply the graded-commutative framework of differential geometry to the polynomial subalgebra of the noncommutative torus algebra. We use the framework of differential geometry described in [27], [14], [25], [26]. In order to apply this framework to noncommutative torus, the notion of the graded-commutative algebra has to be generalized: the "signs" should be allowed to take values in U(1), rather than just {-1,1}. Such generalization is well-known (see, e.g., [8] in the context of linear algebra). We reformulate relevant results of [27], [14], [25], [26] using this extended notion of sign. We show how this framework can be used to construct differential operators, differential forms, and jet spaces on noncommutative tori. Then, we compare the constructed differential forms to the ones, obtained from the spectral triple of the noncommutative torus. Sections 2.1-2.3 recall the basic notions from [27], [14], [25], [26], with the required change of the notion of "sign". In Section 2.4, we apply these notions to the polynomial subalgebra of the noncommutative torus algebra. This polynomial subalgebra is similar to a free graded-commutative algebra. We show that, when restricted to the polynomial subalgebra, Connes construction of differential forms gives the same answer as the one obtained from the graded-commutative differential geometry. One may try to extend these notions to the smooth noncommutative torus algebra, but this was not done in this work.

A reconstruction of the Beilinson-Bloch regulator (for curves) via Fredholm modules was given by Eugene Ha in [12]. However, the proof in [12] contains a critical gap; in Chapter 3, we close this gap. More specifically, we do this by obtaining some technical results, and by proving Property 4 of Section 3.7 (see Theorem 3.9.4), which implies that such reformulation is, indeed, possible. The main motivation for this reformulation is the longer-term goal of finding possible analogs of the second K-group (in the context of algebraic geometry and K-theory of rings) and of the regulators for noncommutative spaces. This work should be seen as a necessary preliminary step for that purpose.

For the convenience of the reader, we also give a short description of the results from [12], as well as some background material on central extensions and Connes-Karoubi character.

'Muchos Méxicos': widening the lens in Rulfo's cinematic texts

It is difficult to overstate the importance of Juan Rulfo’s two major pieces of fictional narrative work—his haunting, enigmatic novel Pedro Páramo (1955) and his unrelenting depictions of the failures of post-revolutionary Mexico in his short story collection El Llano en llamas (1953). In her foreword to the Margaret Sayers Peden English translation, Susan Sontag hails Pedro Páramo as ‘not only one of the masterpieces of 20th Century world literature, but one of the most influential of the century’s books’. García Márquez has compared the influence of Rulfo on 20th Century world literature to that of Sophocles: ‘No son más de 300 páginas, pero son casi tantas y creo tan perdurables como las que conocemos de Sófocles’ and, completing this oftrepeated triumvirate of recommendations, Jorge Luis Borges has referred to Pedro Páramo as: ‘una de las mejores novelas de las literaturas de lengua hispánica, y aun de la literatura.’ Despite the praise heaped upon Rulfo’s two most famous books, when his third book of fiction, El gallo de oro y otros textos para cine, was finally published in 1980, just six years before his death, it was greeted with almost critical silence. It is precisely this publication that provides the focus of this investigation. The collection contains three texts—El despojo, La fórmula secreta and El gallo de oro. Constituting a third of the fictional work he published in his lifetime, expanding upon themes present in El Llano en llamas and Pedro Páramo while, at the same time, examining new ground, no thematic discussion of Rulfo’s written output is complete without including these texts. Yet they are frequently dismissed. In this way this investigation attempts to go some way towards filling this critical gap in the work of one of the most influential writers of the twentieth century

What motion distributions yield global transparency and spatial segmentation?

We have examined the ability of observers to parse bimodal local-motion distributions into two global motion surfaces, either overlapping (yielding transparent motion) or spatially segregated (yielding a motion boundary). The stimuli were random dot kinematograms in which the direction of motion of each dot was drawn from one of two rectangular probability distributions. A wide range of direction distribution widths and separations was tested. The ability to discriminate the direction of motion of one of the two motion surfaces from the direction of a comparison stimulus was used as an objective test of the perception of two discrete surfaces. Performance for both transparent and spatially segregated motion was remarkably good, being only slightly inferior to that achieved with a single global motion surface. Performance was consistently better for segregated motion than for transparency. Whereas transparent motion was only perceived with direction distributions which were separated by a significant gap, segregated motion could be seen with abutting or even partially overlapping direction distributions. For transparency, the critical gap increased with the range of directions in the distribution. This result does not support models in which transparency depends on detection of a minimum size of gap defining a bimodal direction distribution. We suggest, instead, that the operations which detect bimodality are scaled (in the direction domain) with the overall range of distributions. This yields a flexible, adaptive system that determines whether a gap in the direction distribution serves as a segmentation cue or is smoothed as part of a unitary computation of global motion.

Modélisation de facteurs associés à une perception d'insuffisance lactée

Peu de femmes atteignent la recommandation internationale d’un allaitement exclusif d’une durée minimale de 6 mois malgré ses nombreux bienfaits pour l’enfant et pour la mère. Une raison fréquemment mentionnée pour la cessation précoce de l’allaitement ou l’introduction de préparations commerciales pour nourrissons est l’insuffisance de lait. L’origine de cette perception maternelle demeure toujours inexpliquée bien que sa prévalence dans les écrits soit bien documentée. L’insuffisance lactée relève-t-elle de pratiques d’allaitement qui contreviennent au processus physiologique de la lactation ou relève-t-elle d’un manque de confiance maternelle dans sa capacité d’allaiter? Une meilleure compréhension des déterminants de la perception d’insuffisance lactée (PIL) s’avère primordiale, un manque d’interventions infirmières permettant de prévenir, dépister et soutenir les femmes allaitant percevant une insuffisance lactée ayant été identifié. Cette étude visait à déterminer l’apport explicatif de variables biologiques et psychosociales de 252 femmes primipares allaitant sur une PIL. Une modélisation de facteurs associés à la PIL a été développée à l’aide de l’approche synthèse théorique comportant les variables suivantes: les événements entourant la naissance, les capacités infantiles et maternelles, la supplémentation, le sentiment maternel d’efficacité en allaitement, la PIL et les pratiques d’allaitement. Afin de mieux comprendre comment se développe et évolue la PIL, un devis prédictif confirmatif longitudinal a été privilégié de la naissance à la 6e semaine postnatale. Au T1, soit le premier 24 heures suivant la naissance, les participantes ont complété un questionnaire concernant leur intention d’initier et de maintenir un allaitement exclusif pour une durée de 6 mois. Au T2, soit la 3e journée postpartum, les femmes complétaient un 2e questionnaire regroupant les différentes mesures utilisées pour l’étude des variables de la modélisation PIL, incluant le prélèvement d’un échantillon de lait maternel. À la 2e semaine, soit le T3, les femmes complétaient un questionnaire similaire à celui du T2, lequel était envoyé par la poste. Finalement, au T4, soit à la 6e semaine, une entrevue téléphonique semi-dirigée concernant les pratiques d’allaitement a été réalisée. La vérification des hypothèses s’est faite principalement à l’aide de tests de corrélations de Pearson, d’analyses de régressions et d’équations structurelles. Les résultats indiquent une influence simultanée des capacités infantiles et du sentiment maternel d’efficacité en allaitement sur la PIL au T2 et au T3; le sentiment maternel d’efficacité en allaitement exerçant de surcroit un effet médiateur entre les capacités infantiles et la perception d’insuffisance lactée au T2 et au T3. Au T2, la fréquence des tétées est associée à une diminution du taux de Na+ du lait maternel, marqueur biologique de l’établissement de la lactogenèse II. Des interventions ciblant le développement d’un sentiment maternel élevé d’efficacité en allaitement devraient être privilégiées.

The CloudSat mission and the A-train: a new dimension of space-based observations of clouds and precipitation

CloudSat is a satellite experiment designed to measure the vertical structure of clouds from space. The expected launch of CloudSat is planned for 2004, and once launched, CloudSat will orbit in formation as part of a constellation of satellites (the A-Train) that includes NASA's Aqua and Aura satellites, a NASA-CNES lidar satellite (CALIPSO), and a CNES satellite carrying a polarimeter (PARASOL). A unique feature that CloudSat brings to this constellation is the ability to fly a precise orbit enabling the fields of view of the CloudSat radar to be overlapped with the CALIPSO lidar footprint and the other measurements of the constellation. The precision and near simultaneity of this overlap creates a unique multisatellite observing system for studying the atmospheric processes essential to the hydrological cycle.The vertical profiles of cloud properties provided by CloudSat on the global scale fill a critical gap in the investigation of feedback mechanisms linking clouds to climate. Measuring these profiles requires a combination of active and passive instruments, and this will be achieved by combining the radar data of CloudSat with data from other active and passive sensors of the constellation. This paper describes the underpinning science and general overview of the mission, provides some idea of the expected products and anticipated application of these products, and the potential capability of the A-Train for cloud observations. Notably, the CloudSat mission is expected to stimulate new areas of research on clouds. The mission also provides an important opportunity to demonstrate active sensor technology for future scientific and tactical applications. The CloudSat mission is a partnership between NASA's JPL, the Canadian Space Agency, Colorado State University, the U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. Department of Energy.